“Democrats have all the cover they need to vote in lockstep against Brett Kavanaugh,” write Burgess Everett and Alana Schor at Politico. “But a half-dozen of them have refused to go there, even after a pair of allegations against the Supreme Court nominee.”
The simple reason why
they are understandably uncomfortable in denouncing Brett Kavanaugh without any
substantial evidence against him was first observed long ago by an American
Founder.
The responsibility for
a “bad” Supreme Court nominee lies primarily with the executive, according to
Alexander Hamilton in Federalist
77. “The blame of a bad
nomination would fall upon the President singly and absolutely,” Hamilton writes.
However, he continues
to say that the “censure of rejecting a good one would lie entirely at the door
of the Senate; aggravated by the consideration of their having counteracted the
good intentions of the Executive.”
It seems an inescapable
reality that Senate Democrats now face this dilemma.
There are ten Senate
Democrats running for reelection in states that were carried by President Trump
in 2016, and Republicans hold all the cards in either allowing a further delay
to the confirmation vote or forcing the confirmation vote on Friday morning as
is currently scheduled (with no prospect of a filibuster, for which we can thank
Harry Reid). And unless these
Democrats have more of a reason to vote “no” on Trump’s Supreme Court nominee
than the strength of allegations in which dates, times, and locations of the
alleged crimes, and without one single eyewitness beyond the accusers
themselves, they know that they will run headlong into the ire of their
respective states’ citizens if the president they voted for has his nominee
rejected by their Democrat Senator. This
is even more assured, and will be more quickly realized, today than in
Hamilton’s time, given the far more populist nature
of today’s Senate elections than the Constitution originally prescribed.
There are three ways
that this will play out.
The first is the
likeliest. Christine Blasey Ford, if she
shows up, will testify on Thursday in Washington along with Brett
Kavanaugh. The American people will
witness the testimony of a woman which we know absolutely nothing about argue for
the absolute truth about her nearly four-decade-old memories, substantiated by
nothing more than her own inarguably unreliable
recollection, and without
a single witness that she claims was there even remembering the
“gathering” in question. We will also
witness the complementary testimony of a man who has spent much of his life in
easily reviewable public service, who has been vetted by the FBI several times,
explain why he has never done any such thing and was never at any such
“gathering.”
There is no new evidence
that Christine Blasey Ford can offer, as yet noted. It will undoubtedly be a “he said, she said”
affair, and in no way should that media spectacle, absent new evidence, sway
the opinion of our lawmakers.
That’s the modestly
positive possible outcome for Democrats.
They will still lose a couple of seats in the Senate, I’d wager, but those
Democrats who remain in power can still claim their #MeToo bona fides to their
constituents, and still tout any Supreme Court decision that they don’t like as
illegitimate.
Then, there’s the
second potential outcome. Democrats, and
some Republican defectors, vote to reject Kavanaugh on the grounds of
allegations against him which lack any discernible evidence.
This is the worst
possible outcome for those Democrats battling to keep their seats in states
that supported Trump. You’d be hard-pressed
to find a single turn of events that might galvanize Republicans and reasonable
independents against Senate Democrats more than this nefarious subterfuge
employed solely for the purpose of “rejecting” Trump’s unquestionably “good”
Supreme Court nominee.
Then, there’s the third,
and by far, unlikeliest potential outcome.
Republicans could choose to double-down on their bad decision to not
force this vote for confirmation two weeks ago, allowing the Democrats to
continue the ridiculous circus that they’ve begun into weeks beyond now.
It’s unthinkable to
imagine that this might happen. Republicans
must force the vote to confirm Kavanaugh on Friday morning, and no later. A refusal to do so will spell doom for
Republicans, who risk demoralizing their base of constituents. Republicans must give the Senate Democrats an
opportunity to either accept or “reject” Kavanaugh.
Trump certainly had
“good intentions” when he nominated Kavanaugh, and Americans voted for Trump expecting
he would do exactly that. Kavanaugh certainly
wasn’t the first pick for many social conservatives, to be sure. But he was a “good” pick by Trump, in the
sense that he seems beholden to the law and reasoned appraisal of judicial precedent,
generally impartial with immaculate credentials, and his “extraordinary
intellect and experience” even drew support from hard-lined leftist colleagues
like Lisa Blatt, who said
that “Judge Kavanaugh is the best choice that liberals could
reasonably hope for.”
If Kavanaugh’s confirmation
is derailed by Republicans, who have the ability and every right to force a
vote and a declared outcome at the hands of vulnerable Democrats, based upon media
pressure and the flimsy, decades-old, and undeniably hazy memories of women who
cannot remember even the most basic details around an alleged encounter without
a shred of evidence, and if this is all achieved via the Senate Democrats’ unbelievably
sinister timing and calculated obstruction meant to destroy Trump’s sensible
Supreme Court nominee (not to mention Kavanaugh’s entire life and legacy) on
those insubstantial grounds, Republicans may be left in the cold on election
day, with a demoralized electorate sitting at home wishing for a Party which
will achieve the things they were once promised by Trump’s election.
Namely, an originalist Justice for the Supreme Court like Brett
Kavanaugh.William Sullivan